Northern Ireland vs Belarus: betting odds 15 Nov 2024

Matchday 5 in the Nations League between Northern Ireland and Belarus in Group 3 of League C will take place on November 15 at Windsor Park in Belfast. Northern Ireland vs. Belarus: prediction and betting odds, statistics.


Referee: Luis Godinho (Portugal)

Matches – 9 (International matches, 2023/24–2024/25);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 29;

Average yellow cards per match – 3.2;

Red cards shown – 1;

Average fouls per match – 26;

Penalties – 11%.

Predicted lineups for Northern Ireland vs. Belarus

Northern Ireland (3-4-3): Bailey Peacock-Farrell – Jamal Lewis, Daniel Ballard, Trai Hume – George Saville, Brodie Spencer, Shea Charles, Jordan Thompson – Josh Magennis, Dion Charles, Callum Marshall.


Belarus (3-4-3): Fyodor Lapukhov – Alexander Martynovich, Sergey Politevich, Pavel Zabelin – Kirill Pechenin, Max Ebong, Vadim Pigas, Yevgeny Yablonsky – Herman Barkovsky, Valery Gromyko, Yevgeny Shikavka.

Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland achieved their biggest ever win in the Nations League, thrashing Bulgaria 5-0 in the last round. This victory was their second in the current tournament edition (1 draw, 1 loss). These results put Michael O'Neill's team at the top of the group, one point ahead of their upcoming opponent. Northern Ireland also leads the group in terms of goals scored, with seven goals. A win in the upcoming game will guarantee them first place in the group.


  • At least one team failed to score in Northern Ireland's last four Nations League matches.
  • The team is unbeaten in four home matches in this tournament (3 wins, 1 draw), winning the last three.
  • Northern Ireland has scored at least two goals in their last four home Nations League matches.

Belarus

Belarus ended their last two tournament matches in draws, with goalless results against Northern Ireland (0-0) and Luxembourg (1-1). The team remains unbeaten in the current Nations League campaign (1 win, 3 draws) and is just one point behind Northern Ireland in the group standings. Belarus is one of five teams in League C that have not lost this season. Notably, matches involving Belarus have the lowest average goals scored in the entire division C, with an average of 0.8 goals per game.


Midfielder Valery Bocherov and forwards Vitaly Lisakovich and Pavel Savitsky did not receive visas and will not travel with the team for the upcoming match.


  • No more than two goals have been scored in 9 of Belarus's last 10 Nations League matches.
  • The team's unbeaten run in the Nations League stands at five matches (1 win, 4 draws).
  • Belarus has won with a handicap (+1.5) in 9 of their last 10 away matches in this tournament.

Northern Ireland vs. Belarus: Match Prediction

Bookmakers consider the hosts overwhelming favorites for the upcoming match, likely based on Northern Ireland's last Nations League result, where they defeated Bulgaria 5-0. However, the result of that match does not fully reflect the nature of the game; Michael O'Neill's team did not dominate as much as the scoreline suggests, with an xG of only 1.49 compared to Bulgaria's 1.22. Moreover, Northern Ireland's upcoming opponent rarely loses in the Nations League and has not been defeated in this tournament edition.


Additionally, in the first-round match, Belarus managed to challenge Northern Ireland, ending in a 0-0 draw. Therefore, I disagree with the bookmakers regarding the balance of power. Yes, the hosts should be favorites, but not overwhelmingly so. I believe that the visitors, unbeaten in five Nations League matches, can provide strong resistance. Even if they don't earn points, they shouldn't lose heavily to Northern Ireland.


Furthermore, Belarus has not lost by more than one goal in 14 of their last 15 Nations League matches, while Northern Ireland has not won by such a margin in 18 of their last 20 matches in this tournament. In this Nations League edition, Carlos Alos Ferrer's team has conceded only one goal. Therefore, my prediction is "Belarus with a handicap (+1.5)".

Betting tips 15 Nov 2024

In this League C group, nothing is settled yet. Even the last-placed Luxembourg, with two points, could finish top, so the clash between Northern Ireland and Belarus, separated by just one point, is pivotal. Northern Ireland aim to maintain their lead, while Belarus look to overtake.

Matches in this quartet have generally been low-scoring affairs, under the total under 2.5 goals. Yet, Northern Ireland stunned everyone with a 5:0 thrashing of Bulgaria, a team that had not conceded in their previous three matches and stood higher in the table. This emphatic victory was aided by poor performances from Bulgaria's goalkeeper Dimitar Mitov, who failed to stop any on-target shot, an own goal, and the inspired play of Isaac Price. The 21-year-old winger completed a hat-trick in 66 minutes, despite not scoring in 15 matches for Standard.

Belarus haven't shown such scoring prowess. In the Nations League, they either play out 0:0 draws or score a maximum of one goal. This has been sufficient for six points so far. They played to a goalless draw with Northern Ireland previously. Conceding many goals is possible against teams of higher level, as seen in friendlies against Israel and Russia, both ending 0:4. However, in this Nations League, Belarus have conceded only one goal in four matches and haven’t scored more than one goal in their last ten games.

A repeat of the Northern Ireland and Bulgaria match is highly unlikely. The most this pair can manage is a combined total of three goals: their two Euro 2020 qualifying encounters ended 1:0 and 2:1 in favour of Northern Ireland. The hosts should win again this time.

Betting prediction
Northern Ireland to win + Total Under 3.5 – Yes
Cf
Odds
19/20
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Nations League: previous matches in the tournament

Northern Ireland
15.10.24
Northern Ireland
Bulgaria
W
12.10.24
Belarus
Northern Ireland
D
08.09.24
Bulgaria
Northern Ireland
L
05.09.24
Northern Ireland
Luxembourg
W
More matches
Belarus
15.10.24
Belarus
Luxembourg
D
12.10.24
Belarus
Northern Ireland
D
08.09.24
Luxembourg
Belarus
W
05.09.24
Belarus
Bulgaria
D
More matches

H2H: Northern Ireland — Belarus

Nations League 2024-2025
12.10.24
Belarus
Northern Ireland
UEFA Euro 2020 qualifying 2020 Qualifiers
11.06.19
Belarus
Northern Ireland
24.03.19
Northern Ireland
Belarus
Friendlies 2016-2017
27.05.16
Northern Ireland
Belarus

Group stage

League C. Group 3
Team
Played
Matches played
W
D
L
Goals
Goals
Points
Points
1
Northern Ireland
  5:0 2:0 2:0 6 3 2 1
11:3
11
2
Bulgaria
1:0   1:1 0:0 6 2 3 1
3:6
9
3
Belarus
0:0 0:0   1:1 6 1 4 1
3:4
7
4
Luxembourg
2:2 0:1 0:1   6 0 3 3
3:7
3

Team lineups

Northern Ireland

Michael O'Neill
coach
Player Matches Goals
In squad
Bailey Peacock-Farrell
gk. 48 -60
Pierce Charles
gk. 2 0
Luke Southwood
gk. 1 -1
Jamal Lewis
df. 39 0
Daniel Ballard
df. 26 4
Ciaron Brown
df. 22 0
Conor Bradley
df. 21 3
Trai Ham
df. 17 0
Brodie Spencer
df. 11 0
Kofi Balmer
df. 0 0
Ruairi McConville
df. 0 0
George Saville
mf. 54 0
Jordan Thompson
mf. 38 0
Ali McCann
mf. 26 1
Shea Charles
mf. 21 0
Isaac Price
mf. 16 5
Ethan Galbraith
mf. 3 0
Brad Lyons
mf. 2 0
Caolan Boyd-Munce
mf. 2 0
Justin Devenny
mf. 0 0
Josh Magennis
fw. 81 12
Dion Charles
fw. 26 3
Paul Smyth
fw. 14 2
Callum Marshall
fw. 8 0
Jamie Reid
fw. 6 1
Ross McCausland
fw. 5 0
Lee Bonis
fw. 1 0
Belarus

Carlos Alos Ferrer
coach
Player Matches Goals
In squad
Pavel Pavlyuchenko
gk. 14 -18
Maksim Plotnikov
gk. 6 -5
Fedor Lapoukhov
gk. 5 -2
Alyaksandr Martynovich
df. 78 2
Denis Polyakov
df. 63 2
Sergey Politevich
df. 48 2
Kirill Pechenin
df. 33 0
Zakhar Volkov
df. 20 0
Sergei Karpovich
df. 14 0
Pavel Tsabelin
df. 5 0
Egor Parkhomenko
df. 3 0
Vadim Pigas
df. 1 0
Dmitri Prishchepa
df. 0 0
Max Ebong Ngome
mf. 42 5
Vladislav Klimovich
mf. 42 1
Eugeniy Yablonskiy
mf. 39 3
Yuri Kovalev
mf. 26 1
Valeri Gromyko
mf. 19 2
Valeriy Bocherov
mf. 16 0
Aleksandr Selyava
mf. 12 0
Nikita Demchenko
mf. 0 0
Pavel Savitski
fw. 28 7
Vitali Lisakovich
fw. 21 5
Dmitri Antilevski
fw. 17 2
Yevgeniy Shikavka
fw. 6 0
German Barkovskiy
fw. 4 0

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Andy H
Andy H
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